Climate change and sustainable water resources: placing the threat of global warming in perspective
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Hydrological Sciences—Journal—des Sciences Hydrologiques, 44(4) August 1999
S pecial issue: Barriers to Sustainable Management of Water Quantity and Quality
54]
Climate change and sustainable water resources: placing the threat of global warming in perspective
J. A. A. JONES
Institute of Geography and Earth Sciences, University of Wales, Aberystwyth, SY23 3DB, UK e-mail: jaj@aber.ac.uk Abstract Predicted climate change over the coming decades is likely to add measurable stress to water resources in many regions of the world, including some areas that are currently well endowed. The stresses are likely to involve changes in the frequency of extreme events as well as gradual changes in mean annual net resources. The paper analyses these predictions. It also attempts to place them in context, first, comparing their impact with other major barriers to sustainability, such as increasing demand, wastage, poor water resources assessment and international conflict, and, secondly, considering the limitations of current predictive techniques.
Modification climatique et durabilité des ressources en eau: dans la perspective d'une menace de réchauffement planétaire
Résumé Les modifications climatiques devant se produire au cours des prochaines décennies devraient aggraver le stress hydrique dans de nombreuses régions du monde, y compris dans certaines d'entre elles actuellement bien pourvues en eau. On doit s'attendre à des modifications concernant aussi bien la fréquence des événements extrêmes que les modules annuels. Cet article s'intéresse à ces prédictions et s'efforce de les remettre en perspective, en comparant leurs impacts à ceux d'autres obstacles à la durabilité comme la croissance de la demande, les rejets, les incertitudes pesant sur l'évaluation des ressources et les conflits internationaux, mais aussi en prenant en considération les limites actuelles capacités de prédiction.
INTRODUCTION The International Commission on Water Resources Systems of IAHS has convened a series of symposia and published a Special Issue of this journal on the sustainable management of water resources, which have sought to define aims and measures for future sustainability (Simonovic et ai, 1995; Rosbjerg et ai, 1997; Simonovic, 1997). They have inevitably also identified some of the barriers to sustainability. Falkenmark (1997) noted two such threats: increasing food needs and increasing pollution. This paper is concerned with a third potential threat, climate change, and to adjudge its relative significance. Many recent publications have attempted to predict the impact of an enhanced greenhouse effect upon regional water resources in the twenty-first century (e.g. Arnell & Reynard, 1993; Arnell, 1996; IPCC,1996; Jones et al, 1996). A recent release from the UK Hadley Centre (1997) focuses on the global impact of the climatic predictions from the HadCM2 high resolution coupled atmosphere-ocean General Circulation Model (GCM) transient run on vegetation, agriculture and water resources. In this, Arnell & King (1997) compare the impact on water resources, modelled by inputting
Open for discussion until I February 2000
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